September Surge: Career experts disagree whether hiring surge is coming in 2023's market

September represents the start of fall, football and school seasons, and for those looking to secure work, the month carries an extra glimpse of hope. 

The hashtag “SeptemberSurge” has recently trended on TikTok with nearly 6 million views and multiple videos explaining the idea of a hiring increase that regularly occurs this time of year. 

“Hiring managers want to get their teams filled out and hired before the holiday season so that they can hit the ground running in January,” career coach Liora Alvarez shared.

The labor market has cooled so far in 2023, but data from LinkedIn shows signs of it stabilizing, according to the company’s principal economist Guy Berger. 

“Last year's uptick stood out amid a disappointing trend, while this year it will be scrutinized for green shoots of hiring recovery,” Berger told USA TODAY. 

Jobs report August:187,000 jobs added in August as unemployment rises to 3.8%

Job vacancies dropped to 8.8 million last month from June’s 9.2 million, marking a new low since March 2022, but are still healthy historically since the number of openings never reached 8 million before the pandemic, the Associated Press reported. 

In August, hiring unexpectedly picked up as employers added 187,000 jobs despite high interest rates and inflation but totals for the prior two months were revised down sharply.

Payroll growth for June and July was revised down by 110,000 jobs, portraying a much weaker picture of employment growth over the summer than previously thought. And job gains in August expected to be affected by several unusual crosscurrents last month, making it tough to discern if the latest numbers reflect overall hiring trends or one-offs.

Idea behind September surge

Multiple experts explained the reasoning that September would mark the start of a hiring increase. 

• Recruiters and hirers are returning from summer trips
• Kids are returning to school giving employer parents more time to focus on hiring
• Hirers are hoping to fill out staffing positions before the holiday season 

Some experts say a September hiring increase is still likely

While job openings have decreased, Alvarez, who launched her own equitable recruiting firm Colorful Futures earlier this year, still believes in the September Surge. She did, however, acknowledge the hiring increase will likely be slower than previous Septembers. 

“Regardless of the economy, this is still the time that folks are focusing on hiring,” Alvarez shared. “You're having jobs within a day or two receive hundreds of applications so it's definitely more difficult now than it has been in the past. But that doesn't mean that it isn't a good time to focus on finding a job and putting your info out there.” 

Alvarez emphasized that “September Surge” is not a magical road to employment but a good time to put extra effort into applying for roles. She added that job seekers should not settle for roles they don’t want out of a sense of desperation. 

“Take advantage of this surge, take advantage of the larger scope of opportunity, and make sure that you're really focusing on the things that you really want and the values that align with you,” Alvarez said. 

Chanelle Howell, a career consultant with a background in the finance industry, said the hiring surge might be lower than previous years but still present. She recommends comparing the September surge to hiring from the months prior rather than previous Septembers. 

“If you've moved the needle from zero to 10 usually, but the last year or two, you've only from zero to five, moving to a two is still going to be significant. It's just going to be significant within that perspective," Howell shared. 

Other experts say job seekers should lower expectations of a surge

Even with the market stabilizing, companies are in survival mode instead of a growth period, according to recruitment coach Joel Lalgee. He added that employers' priority is to keep the workers they currently have and avoid layoffs rather than growing into 2024.

“Whereas if you look at the last 10 years, COVID included, around this time people still had a growth mindset and optimism for the future and we're not at that point yet,” Lalgee said. “A huge pickup in hiring is not consistent with what we've seen this year, and what we're going to continue to see for the next few quarters.” 

Lalgee added that even if scheduling gets easier, a pick-up in hiring could be minimal because the major driving force for hiring, a demand for talent and growth, isn't where it has been in the past. Based on his conversations, he expects hiring managers to start expanding by the end of 2024’s first financial quarter going into the second around March. 

Kevin White, an IT manager who offers advice on TikTok on how to navigate the corporate world effectively, said there is no massive hiring that occurs around December because there is still a lack of job openings. 

White said he believes the idea of a surge is mainly being pushed by career professionals. 

“There's job openings basically every month,” White said. "There isn't any distinction that just because it's September now hiring just rapidly increases.”

Tamika Chante, a career strategist and development consultant, said September Surge don’t exist anymore as companies don’t feel the same pressure to hire before the holidays anymore. She added job seekers should lower expectations of a miraculous shift in hiring.

“It's a competitive market, you're still dealing with layoffs, you're competing with people who have expert advice, who are laid off, and they're having a hard time finding jobs. I don't think September surge is going to change that,” Chante shared. 

What are the busiest months for hiring? 

LinkedIn data shows January is actually the busiest month for hiring, according to Berger, followed by June, likely due to students starting a new job after the school year ends. Berger added that August has seen the most entry-level hiring for the past four years.

How to take advantage of a September surge

Whether a hiring increase will come or not is up for debate, but career experts agree job seekers should make the most of September.

Howell recommends making sure resumes are updated, LinkedIn pages are fully optimized, networking is happening online, and interviewing skills are being practiced.

Alvarez said she recommends her clients write their own job description, perfectly curate what their desired workload would be and make sure at least 80% of their resume highlights that.

White said job searching is straightforward but requires consistency.

"If you're looking for a new job, if you've been laid off, the best thing you can do is stay consistent [with] applying and finding. Searching for a job is a job in itself," he said.